The Conservative Party has been left scrambling for cover after its use of crime statistics earned it the ire of the UK Statistics Authority.

Ever since the row over knife crime statistics at the end of 2008, when the authority fell out with the Government, it has been dying for a chance to display its apolitical credentials. Ministers gave Sir Michael Scholar, Chair of the authority, a hard time after he publicly criticised them.
 
So an opportunity to take the Tories to task over a similar abuse was not going to be missed. In his letter to Chris Grayling, the Conservatives’ shadow Home Secretary, Sir Michael denies any wish to become involved in political controversy but that is only half-true. What he is really anxious to do is to show that he is even-handed and Mr Grayling has provided it.
 
At issue is whether violent crime has increased under a Labour Government, as claimed by Mr Grayling. Police recorded crime statistics appear to show that it has, but only because of a change in 2002 in the way crime is recorded. That led to increases, caused by the change in definition, in crimes against the person.
 
But the statistics come with a prominent health warning saying that because of the change, it is impossible to compare figures prior to 2002-03 with those of earlier years – just what Mr Grayling did.
 
The British Crime Survey, a separate body of data with no such discontinuities, provides a better source. It shows that there has been no increase in violent crime experienced by respondents between the late 1990s and 2008-09. The graph below summarises the data on violent crime from the BCS:
 
 
                          
   
In a note the authority says that it appreciates political debate involves the selection and interpretation of statistics and other evidence to support an argument. “However, where we see that official statistics have been presented or quoted in a way that seems likely to mislead the public, we will publicly draw this to the attention of those involved.”
 
Mr Grayling said he would "take account" of Sir Michael’s comments, but would continue to use recorded crime statistics as they showed the "number of violent crimes reported to police stations and, particularly serious violent crimes, has increased substantially over the past decade". 
 
He said that the Home Office itself had used the same data set to draw comparisons.“We don’t create crime figures” he said. “We use the official crime figures published by the Home Office. The Home Office has continued to use the same comparators.”