Does serving time at Her Majesty’s pleasure protect against flu? From the data available so far, that is a conclusion one might reasonably draw.

 On 16 July, the Health Protection Agency estimated that, in the previous week alone, there had been 55,000 new cases of swine flu in England (range 30,000 - 85,000). The clear implication is that the cumulative incidence of swine flu would have to have exceeded 1 per 1,000 of population. Some 30-40 per cent of H1N1 cases have been aged between 15 and 39.
 
At any one time, there are 80,000 prisoners and young offenders in England, and 8,000 in Scotland. For the most part, inmates are male and under 40 years of age. Officers and visitors, including children, in addition to those newly received into prison, potentially bring H1N1 into our jails.
 
How many confirmed cases of H1N1 have there been amongst inmates? None have been announced so far.
 
Virological confirmation would almost surely be required of any suspect H1N1 cases in prison. Not least because there could be important implications for prison life: such as disruption or cancellation of prisoners’ work parties, education, recreation, visits; what to do about sharing of cells; and ‘isolation’ of particular wings in the prison. Prisoners mostly dine in their cells, rather than communally.
 
In many respects, prisons are a reflection of the outside communities that they serve. But, unless there have been around 30 cases of swine flu among those incarcerated, prisons are either a form of protective quarantine from H1N1 or we have over-estimated UK’s cumulative incidence of H1N1.
 
The Health Protection Agency publishes its weekly update today. Will the incidence of new cases of swine flu have increased again? And will we start to get information about H1N1 cases serving time?