Waiting for data on child deaths from pandemic flu

Three months into 2010, we still have no data on the number of children who died as a result of pandemic flu in 2009. But thanks to Andrew Pelling MP, who posed a parliamentary question, at least we have the historical backdrop against which to compare the 2009 data when they do emerge.

 At a meeting of the Royal Society on 16 March, a World Health Organisation representative claimed that countries had experienced an unusual toll on children from pandemic flu – countries with earlier marshalled data than England and Wales, presumably. Here the most recent monthy account of children’s total mortality the ONS can provide is for 2008. For information on deaths where rsspiratory diseases were the underlying cause, the longer coding-wait may be the reason for non-disclosure of deaths in 2009.  
 
Is there then any value in parliamentary answers provided to Mr Pelling? The answer is a resounding yes because the Table below summarises the quarterly backdrop against which to compare the counts for 2009 when they are finally released. The full monthly data are available here.
 
        

From the Table for the three years of 2006+2007+2008, notice the following.

Children aged 1 – 4 years: In the first and fourth quarters of 2006-08, the proportion of deaths in children aged 1 to 4 years where respiratory diseases were the underlying cause was 12.5 per cent (110/879: 95 per cent CI from 10 per cent to 15 per cent) but noticeably lower in April to September at 6.9 per cent (50/728: CI 5 to 9 per cent). There is clear evidence of seasonality even in total mortality among children aged 1 to 4 years insofar as the April to September death-toll for 2006-08 was 728, very significantly lower than for the first and fourth quarters of these three years, namely 879 (p < 0.001).

 
Children aged 5 –14 years: All causes death rate roughly halves for children aged 5 to 14 years versus at ages 1 to 4 years. Also, in the first and fourth quarters of 2006-08, the proportion of deaths in children aged 5 to 14 years where respiratory diseases were coded as the underlying cause was 8.8 per cent (88/1001: 95 per cent CI from 7 to 11 per cent) and similarly in April to September at 7.6 per cent (75/992: CI 6 to 9 per cent). There was also no clear evidence of seasonality in total mortality among children aged 5 to 14 years insofar as the April to September death-toll for 2006-08 was 992, and that for the first and fourth quarters was 1001.
 
For eventual comparison with 2009: the April to September annual averages across 2006-08 were 16.7 child deaths aged 1 to 4 years and 25 deaths aged 5 to 14 years where respiratory diseases were the underlying cause.