The row over the release of knife crime statistics at the end of 2008 brought to a head the conflict between the Government and the statisticians. Figures collected by the NHS were included in a Home Office press release on 11 December which claimed that the Tackling Knives Action Programme (TKAP) was succeeding in cutting knife crime.
 
This NHS data, which was cited to show that hospital admissions in the ten TKAP areas were 27 per cent lower for July to September 2008 than for the same months on 2007, were included despite the opposition of the NHS Information Centre.  A statistical officer there said they were potentially inaccurate and might give the wrong impression.
 
This advice was disregarded by No 10 Downing Street, which was “adamant” about the need to publish the statistics, according to an e-mail sent from the Department of Health to the Information Centre on December 10.  Despite being warned that to do so would breach two fundamental principles of statistics – that decisions on publication are taken by professionals and not by politicians, and that the publications of statistics are preannounced – the Home Office went ahead.
 
The issue quickly became a cause celebre when Sir Michael Scholar, Chairman of the Statistics Authority, made a formal public complain. This led to an apology from the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, in the House of Commons and to a new directive by the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O’Donnell, covering how statistical information should be handled by government departments.
 
Because of the importance of the issue these documents are attached as a source of reference, together with a revealing exchange of e-mails in the days before the release of the statistics. The decision by Sir Michael Scholar to release these e-mails to the Public Affairs Select Committee was not taken lightly, as he was fully aware that it would infuriate No 10. But he argued that because the Statistics Authority reports to Parliament he could not refuse.
 
Some names have been obscured in the e-mail trail, according to a government convention under which the names of officials below Deputy Director are not revealed.
 
The e-mail trail:
  
 
From: MCavanagh@no10
Sent: 10/1/2008 11.59
To: Mario.Dunn@dh_
Cc: GBeales@no10
    Number 10 official
 
Subject: knife wounding figures
 
Mario - we spoke. Here is the statement that the PM would like us to publish tomorrow as part of the knife crime announcement. As discussed, like the equivalent CJS figures, this does cover stats which are covered by national statistics, but it is only a subset and we will be making clear that these figs are provisional and the final figs, subject to the usual nat statistics rigour, will be coming out in the usual way (if there is any particular form of words you'd like us to use, to convey that, let me know).
 
Can you confirm whether this is ok as soon as possible, if poss by 2pm?
 
Thanks.
 
“Hospital admissions in the ten TKAP areas for knife or sharp instrument woundings were 27% lower for July to September 2008 compared to the same period in 2007 ."
 
 
 
From: Mario.Dunn@dh
Sent: 10/12/2008 12:31
 
To: Department of Health official (policy; Department Of Health official (policy) Cc: Department of Health official (private office)
 
Subject: Fw: knife wounding figures
 
URGENT
 
Assume ok to clear this?
 
 
 
From: Department of Health official (policy)
Sent: 10 December 2008 13 :16
To: Mario.Dunn
Cc: Department Of Health official (policy)
Department of Health official (private office);
NHS Information Centre statistical officer;
NHS Information Centre statistical officer
 
Subject: Re: Fw: knife wounding figures
Importance: High
 
Mario,
I just tried to call.
I have spoken to XXXXXXX at the Information Centre and she is seeking clearance to publish this information, She is aware of the deadline and we will aim to get back to you by 14:00.
 
Assuming we do get clearance, the statistic should be rephrased as: “Hospital admissions in the nine TKAP areas in England for assault by a sharp object (including knives) were 27% lower for July to September 2008 compared to the same
period in 2007.”
 
Thanks,
 
 XXXXXXXX
 
 
 
From: NHS Information Centre statistical officer
Sent: 10/12/2008 13 :56
To: Department of Health official (policy), Mario Dunn@dh
Cc: Department Of Health official (policy)
    Department at Health Official (private office) :
    NHS Information Centre statistical officer;
    Andy Sutherland@ic.nhs
    NHS Information Centre statistical officer
 
Subject: RE: Fw: knife wounding figures
 
I’ve spoken to a number of people here, including the Head of Profession at the NHS IC and our view is that these provisional data are NOT released.
 
Our reasons are:
1) As explained already these are provisional data for 2007/08 and 2008/09 and therefore they are potentially inaccurate and may possibly give the wrong impression.
2) If we allowed these data to be published, we open ourselves up to provide these provisional data to others who may ask for data which shows different trends.
 
Regards
 
XXXXXXXXXXX
 
 
 
From: Department of Health official (policy)
Sent: 10 December 2008 15:54
 
To: NHS Information Centre statistical officer
Cc: Andy.Sutherland@ic.nhs
NHS Information Centre statistical officer ;
Department Of Health official (policy)
NHS Information Centre statistical officer ;
Mario.Dunn@dh
Department of Health official (private office) ;
Department of Health Statistician
Department Of Health official (policy)
 
Subject: RE: knife wounding figures
Importance: High
 
I have tried to call you and Andy but you are both in meetings.
 
For your information, I have passed on your concerns regarding the release of this data and outlined the Departmental position to all concerned that we would not seek to overrule the Information Centre on this matter.
 
However, I have also been informed that Number 10 are adamant about the need to publish this statistic. As a result I have been informed that they are likely to publish the data irrespective of the concerns raised.
 
Happy to discuss,
 
 
 
 
From: AndySutherland@ic.nhs
Sent: 10 December 2008 16:36
 
To: Department of Health official (policy:
NHS Information Centre statistical officer
Cc: NHS Information Centre statistical officer :
Department Of Health official (policy)
NHS Information Centre statistical officer ;
Mario.Dunn@dh
Department of Health official(private office);
Department of Health Statistician
Department Of Health official (policy)
 
Subject: RE: knife wounding figures
 
I have discussed this with ONS and within the IC. If No lO go ahead and publish against our will then they are going against two fairly fundamental principles of statistics:
 
(a) that decisions on publication of statistics are taken by professionals and not by politicians ;
(b) that publications of statistics are preannounced - we don’t just publish out of the blue.
 
I have no wish to be awkward, but if they are insistent on this course of action then I will need to raise it with Karen Dunnell, the National Statistician. No l0 have just
supported setting up the UK Statistics Authority and a new pre-release access order tightening up on arrangements in order to build trust - this goes right against these
developments.
 
On a practical note, this will look to observers as if the govt has cherry picked the good news and forced out publication for political ends - is this really what they want?
Andy
 
Andy Sutherland
Programme Head, Population and Resources
Head of Profession for Statistics
 
 
 
 
From: Andy.Sutherland@ic.nhs
Sent: 10/12/2008 16 :57
 
To: Office for National Statistics official (policy)
cc: NHS Information Centre statistical officer
Subject: for info at this stage
FW: knife wounding figures
 
Just for info at this stage and so that you are aware of the advice I have given. I (or probably XXXXXXX as I am on a train tomorrow) will speak further with you if necessary.
 
Andy
 
Andy Sutherland
Programme Head, Population and Resources
Head of Profession for Statistics
 
 
 
 
From: Mike.Hughes@ons
Sent: 11/1212008 08 :35
 
To: Number 10 official (private office)
cc: Karen.Dunnell@ons
 
Subject: FOR URGENT ATTENTION OF JEREMY HEYWOOD - Knife wounding figures
 
Karen Dunnell, the National Statistician, has spoken to Jeremy this morning about the inclusion of certain unpublished statistics in a statement the PM may be making.
 
Further information is provided below.
 
Mike Hughes
Director
National Statistics and Policy Group
Office for National Statistics
 
 
 
 
From : Mike.Hughes@ons.
Sent: 11 December2008 11 :03
 
To Number 10 official
Cc: Karen,Dunnell
 
Subject: Knife wounding figures
As discussed.
 
I understand that the information Centre currently provide this information to No 10 for management purposes, with provisos that the figures aren’t final and aren’t for
publication.
 
The Code of Practice doesn’t specify the handling of statistics derived from administrative data per se but the relevant principles of the Code are that;
 
• the Head of Profession will decide the publication date for the derived statistics
• the publication date will be pre-announced.
 
Happy to discuss further. I'm best contacted on my mobile
 
Mike
Mike Hughes
Director
National Statistics and Policy Group
Office for National Statistics
 
 
 
 
From: Number 10 official
Sent: 11/12/2008 11 :22
To: Mike.Hughes
Cc: Karen Dunnell
 
Subject: RE: Knife wounding figures (UNCLASSIFIEDI [Non-Record]
 
Thanks Mike, I am most grateful to you for bringing this to my attention and am pursuing urgently at this end.
 
Regards
XXXXXXXX